by Sam Wang
$ Distributed among the recipients below
Generally, I believe that donations ought to be made in cases where the outcome is relatively uncertain, e.g. in the 20-80% probability range. This maximizes the per-dollar impact of your donation in affecting the outcome. This year, the logic underlying where your dollars make the most impact is different from the 2004 presidential election. The 2004 election required a complex analysis involving the electoral college. In 2006, control of the House and Senate will be determined simply by who can get control of at least 218 or more votes in the House, and 51 (or, for Republicans, 50) votes in the Senate. Control hangs on a relatively small number of key races: about 30 House races and about 10 Senate races. Your money is most effective in cases where the races are tightest. Current polling margins for many races can be obtained at Pollster.com. In the Senate, the closest races are currently in Missouri, Tennessee, and New Jersey. Therefore you should donate in one of those races. As of October 9th, if Democrats win all three of these races and retain Lieberman in their caucus, they will take control of the Senate. You probably came to this site through my polling meta-analysis. If so, I thank you for your readership and for your support.
This organization and the DNC will be working to turn out voters in the weeks leading up to Election Day, November 2.
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